12:30 PM Saturday 5/15 Heavy Rain/Strong to Severe Storms

Radar returns show showers/storms as close as SW Indiana and South central Indiana and moving NE. So models agree that rain and storm chances increasing some this afternoon and especially tonight and Sunday from the SW ahead of a warm front moving back North. In this kind of environment warm fronts can produce strong to severe weather in storms. Then a cold front approaches Monday with storm chances once again on the increase Monday afternoon and evening and these could be severe. GFS has the heaviest precip South of the river but NAM has it along the river putting down 2″ plus of rain. HPC says 1.9″ of rain.

CMC has next system May 23/24.

NWS HWO Louisville says…..

1051 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010 /951 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS TRAVEL NORTH ACROSS A STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS…DANGEROUS LIGHTNING…AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WILL PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY…FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT…THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT…WITH BETTER CHANCES ON MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

day 1 severe hail

day 1 severe wind

HPC Total Precip Days 1-5