W9wxn's Blog

Midnight Saturday 1/28

w9wxn — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 05:25:39 +0000

Next weather system a clipper will bring a chance for light precipitation later tonight or Saturday morning and moving out by mid afternoon on Saturday. Models show a cold rain or rain/snow mix going to rain later Saturday morning with little or no accumulations. However, I’m a bit concerned with temperature lows tonight/Saturday morning. While models indicate 34-37 degrees for lows tonight the dewpoints are running around 30-31 degrees and my current temperature is the same as the dewpoint temperature. So, I feel the models are too warm for tonight and we may see light freezing rain in some locations Saturday morning before temperatures warm up some later Saturday and stays on the windy side.

Sunday windy/blustery as well.

Warmer afternoon highs next week.

ANother weather system for Tuesday night through WEdnesday. Rain showers with this system and isolted thunder for Wednesday.

Model differences for Thursday. The GFS keeps Thursday dry while the GEM has a plains low moving east spreading precipitation in for Thursday. The DGEX has us warming through the 50′s and perhasp hitting 60 dgrees next Thursday with rain and perhaps thunderstorms. If this wetter solution verifies we might have to keep an eye on strong to severe storms but this is too far out and we need better model agreement. So, will go with a slight chance for rain/thunderstorms next Thursday for now.

Next Friday and next weekend colder.

3:40 PM Friday 1/27

w9wxn — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 20:42:02 +0000

For portions of south central Indiana…

A cold front will bring a chance for light precipitation in the form of light rain/snow Saturday morning but temperatures just above freezing so no big problems expected. Saturday afternoon highs from the upper 30′s to low 40′s. Blustery cold gusty winds Saturday from 20-30 MPH.

Sunday morning lows in the 20′s and afternoon highs from the upper 30′s to low 40′s with gusty winds again especially Sunday morning gusty up to 30 MPH making for a cold morning.

Monday morning lows in the 20′s with a warming trend strating Monday afternoon with highs in the 40′s to near 50 degrees.

Tuesday mild morning lows in the upper 30′s to even 40′s with afternoon highs from near 50 to possibly into the 50′s. Tuesday night shower chance.

Wednesday a chance for showers and isolated thunder with lows of 50 and highs into the 50′s.

Thursday highs in the 40′s with a chance for rain showers.

Next Friday slight chance for showers. Next Friday night GFS introduces a chance for light snow.

The only indication of bitter cold air is the GFS has 2-3 days of bitter cold around Februray 10-12. We’ll see.

3:50 PM THursday 1/26

w9wxn — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 21:01:25 +0000

For portions of south central Indiana…

Most models agree that rain will increase in coverage especially south during the late afternoon and this early evening with isolated thunder. NAM is most generous bringing .50 to 1.00 additional inches of rain in while RUC is less with .10-.50 inches. Rain should taper off tonight and end anywhere from around 4 AM to 10 AM FRiday morning. Lows tonight in the mid 30′s.

Friday AM drizzle possible with clearing in the afternoon and highs reaching into the 40′s.

Saturday morning a cold front will approach bringing with it a chance for light rain/drizzle mixed with light snow and light freezing drizzle but morning low temperatures in the low to mid 30′s at the coldest may prevent much if any problems. Saturday highs from the mid or upper 30′s to low 40′s with breezy conditions. Saturday night lows in the upper 20′s.

Sunday highs in the 35-40 degree range. Sunday night lows in the 20′s.

Monday highs in the 40′s. Monday night lows in 30′s.

Tuesday highs in the upper 40′s to low 50′s. Late Tuesday night the next weather system may begin to influence our weather with a chance for rain.

Wednesday a chance for rain and thunder with a cold front coming through Wed morning. Highs on Weddnesday will occur of the morning with slowly falling temperatures.

Next Thursday a slight chance for showers.

Midnight Thursday 1/26

w9wxn — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 06:07:49 +0000

Heavy rainfall possible Today with slight risk for flash flooding…

Rain will likely move back into the area tonight as a low pressure moves NE. Rain will continue Thursday with a rumble of thunder possible across the far south as noted by SPC. Temperatures will climb on Thursday into the 40′s to near 50 degrees far south. HPC highlights 1.75-2.25 inches more of rain coming in while the GFS/NAM have .50-1.00 inches coming in additional. HPC also highlights a slight risk for flash flooding for portions of the area as well. Flood watches are already out for the eastern sections. Rain should taper off late Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening with rain completely ending Thursday night. Thursday night lows in the 30′s.

Friday highs in the 40′s.

Friday night NAM/GFS both show a slight chance for a cold rain or rain/snow mix with lows in the 30′s.

Saturday early chance for rain/snow then dry with highs in the 40′s.

Sunday morning lows in the 20′s and highs in the upper 30′s.

Monday lows of 20-25 and afternoon highs well into the 40;s.

Tuesday lows in the 30′s and highs near 50.

Tuesday night next weather system with a chance for rain and thunder.

Wednesday morning shower chance with afternoon highs in the 40′s to near 50.

Next Thursday lows in the 20′s and highs in the 40′s to near 50 degrees.

3:30 PM Wednesday 1/25

w9wxn — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 20:33:16 +0000

NWS has issued a flood watch for the eastern sections for Thursday through Thursday night see weather.gov…

11:30 AM Wednesday 1/25

w9wxn — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 16:32:06 +0000

HPC rainfall coming in through Thursday night:

Midnight Wednesday 1/25

w9wxn — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 05:07:20 +0000

Cold night in progress. This afternoon will see temperatures only climb to 38-42 degrees. The next weather system will begin influencing our weather today with light precip possibly entering the west later this morning. Precip today may be light snow across the far north or a light rain/snow mix across the north with light rain far south provided it holds off till late morning. Precipitation during the daylight hours looks to be on the lighter side. Wednesday night precipitation looks to increase and so does temperatures.

Thursday a good chance for rain with temperatures into the 40′s. Rain should wind down Thursday evening. Total precip coming in looks to be on the order of 1-1.5 inches while the GEM model brings up to 2 inches of rain in. If the heavier rain materilizes we could have some hydro issues. THursday night lows in the 20′s.

Friday dry with highs in the low to mid 40′s.

Saturday lows in the 20′s and highs in the 40′s with a chance for sprinkles.

Sunday lows in the 20′s and highs only in the 30′s the coldest day of the next 7 day period.

Monday lows in the 20′s and highs in the 40′s.

Tuesday lows in the 20′s and highs in the 40′s to near 50 degrees. Tuesday night a chance for rain showers.

Next Wednesday morning lows in the 30′s to near 40 and highs into the 50′s with a chance for rain showers.

4 PM Tuesday 1/24

w9wxn — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 21:29:27 +0000

For portions of south central Indiana…

Tonight low temperatures in the 20′s.

Next weather system will bring us rain showers as early as late Wednesday morning across the west and spreading east Wednesday afternoon. Hopefully the onset of the precip will hold off till temperatures climb Wed morning and those temperatures should reach the 40′s WEd afternoon. Rain continues WEd night with some lows dropping into the upper 30′s. Rain chances continues through Thursday and Thursday evening before finally lifting out THursday night. A rumble of thunder not out of the question Thursday. Thursday will be the warmest day of the next week with temperatures approaching 50 degrees across the south. Total rainfall coming in looks to be on the order of 1-1.5 inches. Just a slight chance for precip to end as flurries early Friday morning.

Friday/Saturday cooler with morning lows in the 20′s and highs above 40′s.

Another slight chance for snow flurries Saturday morning.

Sunday looking like the coldest day of the next 7 day period with lows of 20 and highs from the low to mid 30′s with a slight chance for flurries SUnday.

Monday lows in the 20′s and highs in the 40′s. A couple of models want to bring a slight chance for rain in Monday but this may be too soon. Monday night a slight chance for rain possibly mixed with snow.

Next Tuesday a low end chance for rain showers. This weather system could extend into next Wednesday.

Midnight Tuesday 1/24

w9wxn — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 04:51:32 +0000

This afternoons highs reach the 40′s

Wednesday morning lows in the low to mid 30′s. The next weather system should arrive WEdnesday afternoon as rain showers. If the precip should begin early enough Wednesday morning it could begin as light rain/snow. Highs WEd into the 40′s.

Wednesday night rain appears likely as a low moves through with lows in the 40′s.

Thursday chance for rain and thunderstorms with highs near 50 degrees south. Precip should begin to wind down Thursday evening.

Total rainfall coming in look s to be 1-2 inches. If the precip should linger into Thursday night it could be a light mix as lows will drop into the 20′s.

Friday drying out with highs in the 40s’. Friday night lows in the 20′s.

Saturday highs in the 40′s with slight chance for sprinkles. Cold front comes through Saturday late with Saturday night lows in the 20′s. There exist a slight chance for light snow or freezing drizzle Saturday night.

Sunday much colder with highs only in the 20′s to near 30 south. Sunday night lows into the teens to near 20 degrees.

Monday highs climbing back into the 40′s. with a slight chance for rain/snow.

5 PM Monday 1/23 Strong Solar Storm

w9wxn — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 22:00:42 +0000

Strong Solar Storm Affecting Earth

A strong solar flare erupted from the sun Sunday evening and continues to affect the earth. The NWS Space Weather Prediction Center is currently monitoring the storm and posting updates to their page and to FaceBook. The impacts of this storm are considered minimal and will be relegated to the Earth’s poles, where aircraft communications may be degraded along with potential flight rerouting.

The eruption, seen in this image below, is the strongest since September 2005.

In addition to the flare, a Coronal Mass Ejection accompanied the flare. A geomagnetic storm is a near certainty from this event, with G2 (Moderate) levels expected to start around 900 am EST Tuesday, continuing into Wednesday.

This could pose an impact to power grids, where voltage corrections may be required along with false alarms triggered on some protective devices. Intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur.

With strong geomagnetic storms possible, high-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

For more information, follow the storm’s progress at the NWS Space Weather Prediction Center