Rain chances increase by later today and as the night wears on tonight but no heavy rainfall expected with only .25″ of rain or less expected. Mild overnight lows expected for this time of year. For Wednesday will hold onto some chance for rain especially across the south. Will insert isolated thunder into the forecast tonight through Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday depending upon cloud clover may reach 55-60 degrees. Weak cold front comes through later Wednesday.

Wednesday night lows around 38-43.

Thursday highs reach into the 50′s still well above normal. Thursday should be dry as we sit between weather systems. However, there is a slight chance for showers to make it as far north as the river on Thursday. Thursday night colder with lows into the 30′s.

Friday highs warm back into the 50′s once again as the next weather system a low approaches from the west.

The next weather system and it’s timing is somewhat in question…the GFS is quickest bringing it in Friday night while the GEM and ECMWF delay it till Saturday. The ECMWF usually does better in the extended. So will use a compromise…

Late Friday night a chance for rain with lows in the 40′s.

Saturday rain likely and windy with imbedded thunder south not out of the question. Rain could be heavy according to the GFS with 1-2 inches of rain coming in. GFS has a low over SW Indiana Saturday. High temperatures Saturday should reach into the 50′s but we could see 60 degrees. Saturday night rain chances begin to decrease some with a cold front but will keep a chance for rain in the forecast Sat night. Lows Saturday night behind the front in the 35-40 degree range unless the front is delayed a few hours.

SUnday highs in the 40′s with a slight chance for rain or rain showers.

Sunday night a slight chance for snow showers with lows in the upper 20′s.

Monday colder with a slight chance for snow showers or snow flurries and highs in the upper 30′s to low 40′s. Monday night lows in the 20′s.

Next Tuesday dry with highs into the 40′s.

Next Wednesday a little colder yet with highs in the 30′s.

Tuesday night a slight to low end chance for showers and isolated thunder.

Wednesday slight to low end chance for rain showers and isolated thunder especially early in the day but can’t rule them out through out much of Wednesday with high temperatures from 58-62 degrees. Cold front comes through late Wednesday. Wednesday night slight chance for showers early with colder with lows in the mid to upper 30′s.

Thursday highs reach 50-57 degrees.

Friday morning lows from 35-40 and afternoon highs from 50-58.

Model differences from Friday night through the weekend…

Here is a blend of the models using the GFS/GEM. ECMWF not out yet…

Friday night slight chance for rain (possible thunderstorms ahead of a cold front if the DGEX verifies) with lows in the 40′s.

Saturday in response to a low pressure system a chance for rain and windy with highs in the 40′s. Saturday night slight chance for a cold rain with lows in the 35-40 degree range.

Sunday highs in the 40′s with a slight chance for rain. Cold front comes through Sunday. Sunday night slight chance for light snow with lows in the low to mid 30′s.

Monday highs in the mid to upper 40′s.

Next Tuesday lows in the 20′s and highs in the 40′s.

Tuesday another windy mild day with mid to upper 50′s to low 60′s in a few spots possibly expected some 15-20 degrees above normal. The record high Tuesday is 63 degrees for Louisville. Later Tuesday night a chance for showers and mild low temperatures.

Wednesday breezy mild with highs in the upper 50′s with a slight chance for rain showers. Wednesday night slight chance for showers. Total rainfall coming in with this system looks to be about quarter of an inch.

Thursday just a slight chance for showers south with highs reach the mid to upper 50′s. Thursday night colder behind the front with lows in the mid 30′s.

Friday highs reach near 50. Friday night lows around 40.

Weekend is in some doubt as to timing of any precipitation…

Saturday highs in the upper 40′s with a low end chance for rain showers as above normal temps continue. Sat night low end chance for rain showers.

Sunday highs in the mid 50′s with a low end chance for rain and isolated thunder. Sunday night lows in the 30′s and just a slim possibility of rain changing to or mixing with some snow. Of note is the GFS is wetter for Sunday but the ECMWF has a chance for light rain for Sunday.

Next Monday some indications of colder air coming down so will go with highs in the upper 30′s but this may need to be adjusted down later.

Still some indications according to the GFS that February 10 could start a much colder weather pattern, we’ll see.

It is in the 20′s this morning but highs reaching from 52-56 this afternoon. Today will see windy conditions as well.

Tonight warmer with lows in the 38-40 degree range.

Tuesday looks to be a little more windy yet with highs reaching from the mid 50′s north to low 60s SW.

Tuesday night a chance for a few showers with lows in the 40′s to 50 degrees.

Wednesday through Wednesday night a chance for rain showers with highs on Wednesday from 55-58. A weaker cold front comes through late Wednesday.

Thursday lows of 40-45 and highs from 47-52 degrees. Thursday looks dry at this point.

Friday cooler lows with morning lows in the 34-37 degree range and afternoon highs from upper 40′s to low 50′s.

Friday night a slight chance for rain with lows in the 40′s.

Saturday a slight chance for rain with highs in the 40′s. The DGEX model has highs in the 60′s next Saturday but not ready to buy that at least not yet anyway. Saturday night a slight chance for rain possibly mixed with snow with lows in the 30′s.

Sunday a chance for rain with highs in the 40′s.

Next Monday highs around 50 degrees.

Monday warmer but windy with highs in the 50-55 degree range.

Tuesday windy with lows around 40 and highs well into the 50′s and possibly even low 60′s. Tuesday night rain showers possible.

Wednesday rain chance especially of the morning with slight to low end chance in the afternoon with highs in the 50′s.

Wednesday night if the GFS verifies a chance of rain may move back in especially southern sections.

Thursday GFS has a chance for rain of the morning but will go with low end chance of this. Thursday high temperatures in the 40′s to near 50. A cold front comes through Thursday.

Friday lows in the 20′s and afternoon highs into the 40′s. Most models agree on a chance of rain entering the picture late Friday.

Now here is where the weekend gets interesting and difficult…

GFS solution…Friday night/Saturday morning turning colder with rain changing to light snow and ending with Sat/Sun seeing lows in the 20′s and highs in the low 40′s.

Canadian solution…Rain Friday evening through Saturday ending as a little snow Saturday night then much colder next SUnday…

GEM solution…Rain later Friday through Saturday with a strong low and then possibly going over to snow Saturday night but the GEm doesn’t quite go out that far…

ECMWF solution…Rain possibly mixed Friday night with rain Saturday ending as snow Saturday night and much colder next Sunday…

NOGAPS solution…chance for snow showers Saturday and much colder next Sunday…

As you can see quite a spread. What does harmonize is some precip is possible late Friday into Saturday beginning as rain then possibly changing to frozen (or snow) on Friday night or Saturday sometime but how much wintry precip and the timing is unclear at this time for Saturday. It does appear that colder air will arrive Saturday night and next Sunday with next Sunday highs in the 30′s but possibly only the 20′s.

Monday starts off near freezing but warms up under breezy/windy conditions into the low 50′s.

Tuesday even warmer yet with lows in the 40′s and highs well into the 50′s and even 60 degrees. Tuesday night a chance for showers.

Wednesday morning chance for showers with lows in the upper 40′s and highs in the 50′s.

Thursday lows around 40 and highs in the 50′s. ANother weather system may bring a chance for rain showers Thursday evening/night period.

Friday highs in the 40′s and windy with a chance for rain.

Here is where the difference is. The GFS brings a cold front through late Friday with precip moving out Friday night possibly ending as snow flurries or light snow and turning colder with Friday night lows in the 20′s.  The DGEX which delays the cold front and brings a continued threat for rain Friday night.

Saturday GFS has us dry and colder with highs in the 30′s to near 40 while the DGEX has us warmer and a chance for rain continuing with a warm front moving through late Saturday to be followed by a cold front Saturday night a possible thunderstorms Saturday night and colder next SUnday with rain ending. The GFS has next Sunday dry and colder with lows near 20 and highs in the 30′s.

I’m leaning towards the GFS solution for now which has us colder and dry next weekend.

GFS long range has possible colder and wintry weather around mid February. We’ll see.

Tonight colder with lows in the 20′s.

Sunday another windy day in store with similar temperatures to today.

Monday morning a cold start in the 20′s then moderating temperatures in the afternoon with highs reaching near 50 degrees under windy conditions.

Tuesday even warmer with highs into the 50′s. Tuesday night a chance for showers.

Wednesday morning shower chance with warm afternoon highs above normal with highs in the 50′s to possibly 60 degrees. Cold front comes through late Wednesday.

Thursday dry with above normal temperatures for highs in the 50′s.

Friday highs in the 50′s. The GFS/GEM developes a low pressure and brings a chance for rain Friday through Saturday while the ECMWF keeps us mostly dry. If the GFS pans out a chance for rain Friday and a chance for a cold rain Friday night with rain and windy conditions continuing next Saturday. Then as a cold front comes through next Saturday night/Sunday GFS model has a chance for rain possibly changing to some snow late next Sunday.

Sunday windy/blustery as well.

Warmer afternoon highs next week.

ANother weather system for Tuesday night through WEdnesday. Rain showers with this system and isolted thunder for Wednesday.

Model differences for Thursday. The GFS keeps Thursday dry while the GEM has a plains low moving east spreading precipitation in for Thursday. The DGEX has us warming through the 50′s and perhasp hitting 60 dgrees next Thursday with rain and perhaps thunderstorms. If this wetter solution verifies we might have to keep an eye on strong to severe storms but this is too far out and we need better model agreement. So, will go with a slight chance for rain/thunderstorms next Thursday for now.

Next Friday and next weekend  colder.

A cold front will bring a chance for light precipitation in the form of light rain/snow Saturday morning but temperatures just above freezing so no big problems expected. Saturday afternoon highs from the upper 30′s to low 40′s. Blustery cold gusty winds Saturday from 20-30 MPH.

Sunday morning lows in the 20′s and afternoon highs from the upper 30′s to low 40′s with gusty winds again especially Sunday morning gusty up to 30 MPH making for a cold morning.

Monday morning lows in the 20′s with a warming trend strating Monday afternoon with highs in the 40′s to near 50 degrees.

Tuesday mild morning lows in the upper 30′s to even 40′s with afternoon highs from near 50 to possibly into the 50′s. Tuesday night shower chance.

Wednesday a chance for showers and isolated thunder with lows of 50 and highs into the 50′s.

Thursday highs in the 40′s with a chance for rain showers.

Next Friday slight chance for showers. Next Friday night GFS introduces a chance for light snow.

The only indication of bitter cold air is the GFS has 2-3 days of bitter cold around Februray 10-12. We’ll see.

Most models agree that rain will increase in coverage especially south during the late afternoon and this early evening with isolated thunder. NAM is most generous bringing .50 to 1.00 additional inches of rain in while RUC is less with .10-.50 inches. Rain should taper off tonight and end anywhere from around 4 AM to 10 AM FRiday morning. Lows tonight in the mid 30′s.

Friday AM drizzle possible with clearing in the afternoon and highs reaching into the 40′s.

Saturday morning a cold front will approach bringing with it a chance for light rain/drizzle mixed with light snow and light freezing drizzle but morning low temperatures in the low to mid 30′s at the coldest may prevent much if any problems. Saturday highs from the mid or upper 30′s to low 40′s with breezy conditions. Saturday night lows in the upper 20′s.

Sunday highs in the 35-40 degree range. Sunday night lows in the 20′s.

Monday highs in the 40′s. Monday night lows in 30′s.

Tuesday highs in the upper 40′s to low 50′s. Late Tuesday night the next weather system may begin to influence our weather with a chance for rain.

Wednesday a chance for rain and thunder with a cold front coming through Wed morning. Highs on Weddnesday will occur of the morning with slowly falling temperatures.

Next Thursday a slight chance for showers.